The European Union faces a decisive question: by 2035, will it be able to shape its security collectively, or will it remain an alliance of national self-interests? For the Bundesakademie für Sicherheitspolitik (Federal Academy for Security Policy), I have developed two scenarios that illustrate these possible outcomes.
Best Case Scenario
Europe acts united. An EU-wide Preparedness Day brings together exercises across several member states: public alert systems, coordinated medical simulations, and civilian supply chains are put to the test. Situation centers in Warsaw, Rome, and Brussels are linked in real time, while a multinational force in Riga tests joint air defense. The outcome: a resilient and capable Union.
Worst Case Scenario
Every country fends for itself. While there are investments, there is no common strategy. Twenty-seven response plans, twenty-seven different vehicle types, cyber defense centers, firefighting aircraft – too few of everything, hardly compatible, never coordinated. Because no one was willing to move beyond national thinking, Europe lacks the security strength it so urgently needs.
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